Updated rain totals forecast

The 12Z runs are in and there is some difference between the NAM and GFS on the weekend rain totals.

The NAM brings about 1.5 inches of rain to Louisville through the weekend with around 5 inches on the KY/TN border.

The GFS has about 3 inches for Louisville.

The HPC has about 1.5 inches for Louisville.

Here is what the NWS in Louisville says....  Our concerns focus on a couple of mid-level waves that look to bring several more rounds of showers and storms to the region. The first wave looks to roll in during the overnight hours tonight. More diurnally driven storms look likely for Saturday afternoon with another upper wave forecast to come in Saturday night. Each of these waves will have the ability to produce widespread convection along with the possibility of thunderstorms which would be producing torrential rains given the high atmospheric moisture content. The main forecast challenge will be determining where the actual heavy precipitation axis will set up. Overall, the models have not been too bad with the placements thus far, and our current Flash Flood Watch covers the area at highest risk for flooding. Current thinking is that if the 12Z models continue to suggest the additional two waves of convection, an extension of the watch out through Sunday looks very likely.     

Flash Flood WATCH for Frankfort... Lexington...Bardstown...Springfield...Hodgenville...Campbellsville... Cincinnati