One computer model has a cool August ahead

The CFS computer model has the Ohio Valley into a below normal temperature pattern after the current heat wave this week.
The map below shows the temperature trends after this week into the end of August with our region in the 0.5 to 2.5 degrees below normal for the period.

How accurate is the CFS...Climate Forecast System?
It is not the best but can at least give you a bit of a trend. In this case it would be that the heat will not stick around as long as last summer. The CFS as expected will do much better over the next few weeks than the next few months. Last year at this time it was predicting our winter average temperature to be more than 8 degrees below normal for the 3 month period.....we ended up above normal.

Let's take a look at the 12Z GFS run for today on the 500mb forecast.  This is the flow at about 18,000 feet and gives us an idea of the weather trends...... The 588 line is usually the edge of the heat wave and the 594 is when things can get pretty wicked.

GFS 500mb today

The eastern heat is not as bad as it could be because of the wet ground holding the temps down a few degrees.
The heat ridge will be building over the next few days.
There is a heat advisory for NYC.
An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for Philadelphia.

GFS 500mb for Friday

By the end of the week a broad coast to coast ridge is forecast by the GFS.

This pattern does not promote the upper 90's type of heat we have become used to the last few summers. Still, lower 90's and some mid 90's are likely with this.

GFS 500mb for July 24th

By the middle of next week... around the 24th.... a trough will be located over the Ohio Valley easing our temperatures.

In the northwest flow on the edge of the heat will be the ring of fire.
Areas of thunderstorms will move through. So besides the relief from the heat, some additional rains may develop.

GFS 500mb for July 29th

Two weeks from now, the GFS develops a strong heat ridge which may bring our highest temperatures of the summer.

The GFS is more accurate than the CFS, however, things can change a bit.  This time of year, any changes from the forecast 2 weeks out are usually not that much...... we shall see what happens.




Last week I posted about the differences in the forecast for this upcoming week between AccuWeather and The Weather Channel.
AccuWeather had every day in the 90's and TWC had every day in the 80's. It looks like the 90's will win out.

The current forecast from AccuWeather has every day still in the 90's this week with next in the 80's and 2 days in the 70's.
The Weather Channel has caught up with AccuWeather and now has every day in the 90's this week and 80's next week.

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