NAM increases rain forecast to 5 inches

This weather system reminds of the winter systems as each model run has the forecast axis of heaviest rain totals shifting. In the 12Z runs, the NAM has gone to the west from earlier runs while the GFS has gone a bit to the east.

12Z NAM 84 hour rain

The NAM has really gotten bullish on the rain forecast with 5 inches (orange) from Nashville to Bowling Green to Louisville. The time period ends Sunday evening. The only way we will get that amount is if thunderstorms develop in the area.

Most of this is for today and tonight and again from Saturday into Sunday.

12Z GFS 84 hour rain

The GFS has the 5 inch rains around Nashville and Bowling Green.

2-3 inches is the current GFS forecast for Louisville.

Rain totals as of 1:00 range from a quarter inch in the NW suburbs to a little under an inch over the SE metro area.
The official Louisville total was at .49".



Brief headlines.....

Flash Flood WATCH remains in effect through tonight.

The Rapid Refresh model now brings the heaviest rain into Louisville during the late evening.

AccuWeather is calling for 3.5 inches of rain.

The latest JMA is calling for about 3.5 inches of rain today through the weekend.

At least the rain has been light with no flooding issues so far.  It looks like a steady light rain will continue into at least late afternoon.