Upper level slight risk for severe storms this afternoon

SPC tornado risk today

The mid-morning numbers are in and there is a 5% risk for a tornado across the region.
The 5% risk area includes.....
Louisville
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Evansville
Lexington
Bowling Green
Paducah
Bloomington

SPC wind damage risk

A 30%, or upper level slight risk, also covers the region.
A broad brush of slight risk is misleading when not including the 30% because this is the area where the severe weather is expected to be concentrated.

SPC says....PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONE OR MORE SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORM CLUSTERS...ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THEIR EVOLUTION ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE AREAS THAT SEEM MOST PRONE TO THIS THREAT ARE FROM EASTERN IL ACROSS MUCH OF IND/OH/KY.
NWS Louisville:  GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND EXPECTED HEATING...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS LATER TODAY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER AS THESE STORMS START TO FIRE UP.

NWS Indy:  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR INITIALLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WHERE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED /LOWER OH VALLEY/...BEFORE QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. *ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES* WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP.

John says: Any amount of sunshine will add to the instability. Current indications are that a tornado watch will be issued for a portion of the region later today. More details as the day goes on.

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The next update from the SPC will be about 12:30.