Moderate risk just north of Louisville

SPC wind damage risk today-tonight

The 12Z update from the SPC has dropped the southern edge of the moderate risk for severe (45%) to just north of Scottsburg, IN.
The moderate risk includes...
Chicago
Indianapolis
South Bend
Fort Wayne
Terre Haute
Bloomington
Seymour
North Vernon
Dayton
Toledo




SPC says: 
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ANTICIPATED EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL PROBABLY WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND MODERATE RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

Louisville is in the 30% risk which is an upper level slight risk. The quickness of the southeast push of this will determine how much wind damage there be for our area. More on that later today.

The hatch marks for 80 mph wind potential has been shifted north to the northern half of Indiana.

SPC tornado risk today

The SPC has a potential for strong tornadoes (hatched area) over northern Illinois.

The 5% tornado risk comes down to Louisville.

There has been a lot of talk about a derecho with this.  At this point, an intense derecho like the one that hit Washington DC last year is not expected.

If anything, the tornado numbers may go up a bit, especially over central and northern Indiana. The next update will be about 12:30.

SPC large hail risk today

Louisville is on the edge of the 30% for large hail with the hatched area for 2 inch hail or larger over northern Indiana.

The main action is for this evening or later tonight.

The SPC did drop the southern edge of the moderate risk like I expected. There is a chance this could go even further south in later updates.