Moderate risk for severe storms just north of Louisville for Wednesday

SPC severe risk for tonight

First all, for tonight the main storm action will be over South Dakota and Nebraska....

SPC says for our area which is in a 5% severe risk.... SMALLER...SOMEWHAT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS/STORMS MAY FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF IL/IND/OH IN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON NERN FRINGE OF EML.

To learn more about what the EML is.....click  HERE

SPC severe risk for Wednesday

 The day 2 outlook has shifted south by 100 miles from the outlook issued earlier today.

The moderate risk for severe storms (45%) includes....
Indianapolis
Columbus, OH
Dayton
Cincinnati
Fort Wayne
south suburbs of Chicago

Louisville is in the 15% or slight risk with areas just north of Louisville in a 30% or upper level slight risk.

The hatch marks indicate potential for winds higher than 80 mph and this does include Louisville.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL/ TO OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD AND SEWD.

NWS Louisville says.....

As of now, an MCS looks to traverse through primarily central Indiana and into Ohio, however, concerns exist for the possibility of either one of two scenarios: 1) the MCS does in fact travel through the aforementioned area but convection back-builds over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky or
2) the MCS dives southward into south-central Indiana and through central Kentucky. In either case, strong to severe storms could be a concern for the forecast area as the event unfolds.

 For scenario 1, each of the deterministic models keeps the main area of convection tracking along with the low pressure system, making it a west to eastward progressing MCS. The GFS has convection building into central Kentucky as the low-level jet ramps up after 00Z Thursday. However, am concerned about the axis of instability that extends from southern Indiana and into the center of the commonwealth overnight, along with the focal point of moisture transport pooling right over the Ohio River. This leaves Louisville and surrounding communities vulnerable to a southward dive of the MCS if it tracks along this axis. This will all continue to be monitored closely as this time frame approaches and hopefully models can come into agreement with its development and progress. Additionally, this time period is just outside of the scope of most high-res models so they could shed some additional light on how it will play out. Regardless, southern Indiana will likely be under the gun for damaging winds as the primary threat.