Slight adjustment in the latest severe weather numbers

SPC wind damage risk tonight

The 4:00 update from the SPC has a slight adjustment in the wind numbers.

The tornado numbers are the same...see the earlier post for that.

On the wind numbers, the 45% or moderate risk comes a little further south and the hatched area or the area with the potential for winds higher than 80 mph, is now about 50 miles further south than the previous update.









HIGH RISK includes
Chicago
South Bend
Fort Wayne

MODERATE RISK includes
Indianapolis
Cincinnati
Bloomington
Seymour
Madison
Austin
North Vernon

80 mph or higher thunderstorm wind potential
Indianapolis
Chicago
South Bend Fort Wayne
Seymour
Madison
Cincinnati


It is a wait and see situation for Louisville as to whether or not the line of storms will be strong when it reaches our area. The WPC still has little or no QPF for our area.
The Louisville NWS has a 50% storm chance.
The Weather Channel TOR:CON index for southern Indiana is 3 and for central Kentucky is 2. So the Weather Channel has moved tonight's severe area further south from this morning's maps. Earlier TWC has the southern edge of the severe thru Indy.... now they have it down to Louisville which goes along with the trends I mentioned this morning that the areas were being drawn too far to the north.

West Palm Beach, Florida

Through 4:00 the only tornado has been this funnel cloud in Florida near West Palm Beach.

A number of tornadoes are expected in the WATCH area during the next 3 to 4 hours.

There is potential for some extreme winds to hit Chicagoland as the axis of instability seems to be setting up for them.