HIGH risk for severe over northern Indiana

SPC Wind damage risk

Updated Wednesday early afternoon.... The SPC has put out a rare HIGH RISK of severe weather over northern Illinois and Indiana.

The high risk is for wind.

This is the 60% area on the wind damage map.

A derecho, or long squall line with widespread wind damage is expected in those areas late this afternoon and early evening.  The line is forecast to move ESE at 50 mph once it gets going.

Cities in the HIGH RISK.....
Chicago
South Bend
Fort Wayne

This is the 16th high risk in Chicago since 1980 and the 3rd since 2000.

The area in the hatch marks is where the SPC believes winds higher than 80 mph may occur.
Chicago
Gary
South Bend Fort Wayne
Kokmo, IN
Indianapolis
Richmond, IN
Lafayette, IN

Cities in the MODERATE RISK (45% wind damage risk)
Indianapolis
Dayton
Champaign, IL
Terre Haute
Bloomington
Seymour

 Louisville remains in an upper level slight risk in the 30% wind damage area

SPC tornado risk

The tornado risk is at 15% over NW Illinois and 10% over NW Indiana.

The hatch marks indicate where EF-2 or stronger tornadoes are possible.


These strong tornadoes would be with the initial thunderstorms that are discrete supercells before they evolve into the squall line.


Most of southern Indiana is in a 5% tornado risk for tonight.

What to watch for......
Will the squall line stay on an ESE course across Indiana and Ohio or will there be a turn to the south and southeast. The GFS is hinting that there is still a chance for some turn but most models keep the squall line mainly along and north of interstate 70. Sometimes these systems develop a trough that shifts the line.....others times it blows through on a straight line.


Rapid refresh... NAM... Weather Channel... all keep all the storms to our north.

AccuWeather has widespread damage for central and northern Indiana and some severe storms for Kentucky and southern Indiana.


Check out the GOES-14 rapid update (1 minute).....  click  HERE  


The next SPC outlook will be around 4:00.