Special Weather Statement for Indiana

This is from the NWS in Indy.... it does cover areas as far south as Seymour and Crothersville....

...WARMEST AIR OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TODAY SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN THE WARMEST AIR OF THE SEASON TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES TO YIELD HEAT INDICES FROM 95 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OFFER SLIGHT RELIEF BUT CAUTION IS ADVISED AGAINST EXCESSIVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDTY WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. REMAIN AWARE OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADJUSTMENTS FOR OUTDOOR PLANS MAY BE NEEDED.

HEED ALL WARNINGS BY TAKING SHELTER IN STURDY BUILDINGS WHEN POSSIBLE.

Some say no little or no storms for Louisville

There are some conflicting reports on the severe threat and storm chance for Louisville for tonight. I will post the new SPC 12Z numbers later but they have shifted the moderate risk area 100 miles back north from yesterday afternoon's update.

The Weather Channel forecast

The Weather Channel has the severe weather staying well to our north today and well south and east tomorrow.

HPC rain forecast

The HPC has little or no or no rain for us.

HRRR forecast for 7 PM

The latest high res radar forecast for early evening has the storms initiating near Chicago which would keep the storms well north of us.

If storms develop over central Illinois, then we will get the brunt of the severe weather.

I am thinking the SPC may shift the southern boundary of the moderate risk back south a little.....we will see.

Nebraska heat burst last night

Occasionally you can get a rapid rise in temperatures during the middle of the night due to downslope winds from thunderstorms. The air heats as it descends through dry air.

Last night in central Nebraska temperatures went from near 70 to as high as 97 degrees at about 4 AM just outside of Kearney.

Below is the summary from the NWS.......

Heat bursts are caused by decaying thunderstorms and only develop in an extremely unique environment. The rare setup for a heat burst is dry air directly beneath a weakening elevated thunderstorm.  When a thunderstorm is weakening air within the thunderstorm begins to sink. If this sinking air is very dry and high enough it will begin to accelerate toward the ground since it is more dense. Any remaining precipitation will fall through this dry air and quickly evaporate. As the air continues downward, it warms rapidly due to compression.
A heat burst is noted by a rapid increase in temperature, a drop in the dew point temperature and an increase in winds.  Here are some readings that occurred this morning.
Lexington Airport

Time          Temp        Dew Pt.          Wind

3:10 am       70                63            Southwest 8 mph

4:30 am       86                48            South 32 mph gusting to 42 mph

5:30 am       81                52            South 25 mph gusting to 32 mph

The peak temperature was 87 degrees at 4:22 am

Holdrege Airport

Time          Temp        Dew Pt.          Wind

3:50 am       72                61            Southwest 10 mph

4:10 am       82                54            Southwest 27 mph gusting to 41 mph

4:30 am       82                52            Southwest 31 mph gusting to 42 mph

4:50 am       81                54            South 23 mph gusting to 36 mph

Hastings Airport

Time          Temp        Dew Pt.          Wind

4:53 am       77                62            South 15 mph gusting to 24 mph

5:53 am       91                44            South 17 mph gusting to 38 mph

6:53 am       84                53            South 21 mph gusting to 35 mph

7:53 am       82                53            South 24 mph gusting to 38 mph

Peak temperature was 94 degrees at 5:47 am

Peak wind gust was from the south at 52 mph at 7:24 am

Kearney Airport

Time          Temp        Dew Pt.          Wind

4:15 am       70                63            South 15 mph

4:55 am       88                50            Southwest 35 mph gusting to 52 mph

5:55 am       82                52            South 28 mph gusting to 38 mph

The peak temperature was 93 degrees.

Grand Island Airport

Time          Temp        Dew Pt.          Wind

6:02 am       79                59             Southwest 6 mph

6:53 am       85                51             South 23 mph gusting to 35 mph

8:13 am       81                59             Southwest 8

Peak temperature was 87 degrees at 7:59 am

Peak Wind Gust was from the South at 40 mph at 6:30 am

The greatest temperature change was at Kearney, where readings went from 70 degrees to 93 degrees between 4 and 5 am. The highest wind gust was 52 mph at both the Hastings and Kearney airports.

Moderate risk for severe storms just north of Louisville for Wednesday

SPC severe risk for tonight

First all, for tonight the main storm action will be over South Dakota and Nebraska....

SPC says for our area which is in a 5% severe risk.... SMALLER...SOMEWHAT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS/STORMS MAY FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF IL/IND/OH IN ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON NERN FRINGE OF EML.

To learn more about what the EML is.....click  HERE

SPC severe risk for Wednesday

 The day 2 outlook has shifted south by 100 miles from the outlook issued earlier today.

The moderate risk for severe storms (45%) includes....
Indianapolis
Columbus, OH
Dayton
Cincinnati
Fort Wayne
south suburbs of Chicago

Louisville is in the 15% or slight risk with areas just north of Louisville in a 30% or upper level slight risk.

The hatch marks indicate potential for winds higher than 80 mph and this does include Louisville.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT /MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL/ TO OCCUR OVER A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD AND SEWD.

NWS Louisville says.....

As of now, an MCS looks to traverse through primarily central Indiana and into Ohio, however, concerns exist for the possibility of either one of two scenarios: 1) the MCS does in fact travel through the aforementioned area but convection back-builds over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky or
2) the MCS dives southward into south-central Indiana and through central Kentucky. In either case, strong to severe storms could be a concern for the forecast area as the event unfolds.

 For scenario 1, each of the deterministic models keeps the main area of convection tracking along with the low pressure system, making it a west to eastward progressing MCS. The GFS has convection building into central Kentucky as the low-level jet ramps up after 00Z Thursday. However, am concerned about the axis of instability that extends from southern Indiana and into the center of the commonwealth overnight, along with the focal point of moisture transport pooling right over the Ohio River. This leaves Louisville and surrounding communities vulnerable to a southward dive of the MCS if it tracks along this axis. This will all continue to be monitored closely as this time frame approaches and hopefully models can come into agreement with its development and progress. Additionally, this time period is just outside of the scope of most high-res models so they could shed some additional light on how it will play out. Regardless, southern Indiana will likely be under the gun for damaging winds as the primary threat.

Huge differences in gas prices around the area

As usual, Louisville has one of the highest gas prices in the region. If we are not used to that by now, we never will be. The summertime blend for pollution controls adds some to our cost.

However, at least we are not the highest for the cost of gas.

A temporary shutdown in the refinery that supplies gasoline for most of Indiana has caused shortages and big increases across the Hoosier state. In Indianapolis, prices are down as much as a quarter today compared with yesterday with a current range of 3.99 to 4.25 a gallon.

Long lines for gas in Indianapolis

Locally, prices in Jefferson County range from 3.83 to 3.99.
Across the river, gas is as low as 3.48 in Clarksville and New Albany.

Going up I-71 by the time you get to Carrollton, gas is at 3.38

East on I-64, 3.48 at Simpsonville

South on I-65,  3.54 just south of Shepherdsville.

The lowest in Kentucky is 3.17 at London.

What's this got to do with the weather?  Nothing except it can make you HOT under the collar if you gas up in Louisville (or Indianapolis).

Is it time for an EF-6 tornado classification?

In recent years, there have been arguments for an EF-6 tornado classification for these extreme tornadoes with winds measured by doppler of around 300 mph.

The Wright-Weather blog has an interesting update on the amount of damage related to the increase in wind speed.....click  HERE    This comes up after the near 300 mph wind speed measured with the El Reno tornado in Oklahoma. 

If you look at the EF chart below, you will see that each category covers up to a 35 mph difference and then everything above 200 mph is rated as an EF5.  There is some evidence to show that there are lower end EF-5's which are devastating and an upper end  EF-5 which is even more devastating if that is possible and it seems to be.
One thing to remember, these reports of 298 mph winds are coming out from the El Reno tornado. This is not at ground level. In most cases, the measurements come from several hundred to several thousand feet above the ground.  In the follow-up NWS storm surveys, the wind speeds are based on the type of damage done at ground level.  There has not been an estimate of 300 mph winds from a tornado at ground level.

Also....here is another interesting blog from one of my weather favorites, Mike Smith, out of Wichita. The article talks about KFOR in Oklahoma City telling people to drive south away from the city during the tornado warning and that if you were not in an underground shelter, you were going to die.....click  HERE

Just what was that on the Huntsville radar

Huntsville NWS radar from Tuesday

On Tuesday, a bright blob appeared on the Huntsville NWS radar and stayed in the same spot for 9 hours.
Obviously it wasn't a thunderstorm because the bright red stayed there with no movement for such a long period.
It wasn't ground clutter because even that return will change with time.
There were lots of theories on what it could be...

Bats: sometimes millions of bats show up on radars as they come out but it would only be for a for minutes on the radar. No bats.

It was not smoke or dust.

It was not the 1,000 ladybugs released by the Huntsville Botanical Garden to fight aphids...  :)

Since the blob was centered over the Redstone Arsenal which is just southwest of Huntsville, most figured they had something to do with it.

Although there has not been official confirmation from Redstone, it looks like the culprit was chaff.  A test of radar jamming chaff particles was shot up into the sky and hung suspended there for hours. Although the chaff will usually drift with the wind, in this case it remained in the same area. Evidently there was a continuous release of the chaff for hours. Small fiberglass particles were found on the ground surrounding Redstone so this is the current theory.